The Violence and Democracy Impact Tracker (VDIT) — a resource from Protect Democracy and the SNF Agora Institute — calculates the impact of political violence on eight distinct pillars of democracy in the United States. On a quarterly basis, the tracker assesses political violence’s impact on the freedoms of expression and association, access to the vote, election administration, equality before the law, individual liberties, and the independence of the judiciary and legislature. VDIT also collects a global panel of experts’ insights into the most concerning emerging trends and top issues to watch.
VDIT began collecting data in July of 2023. The most recent tracking confirms that political violence is eroding American democracy on multiple axes — especially when it comes to the administration of elections. Here are the key takeaways from the latest results:
The capable, impartial, and transparent administration of elections (e.g., vote casting, tabulating, and certification) and the peaceful transfer of power based on their results.
Freedom in both law and practice from actual or threatened physical political harm (e.g., assault, restricted movement, murder, or torture), infringements of economic rights (including property rights and freedom from forced labor), and other freedoms widely understood to be protected by the Constitution.
Transparency in lawmaking, impartial administration of public functions, and individuals’ full and equal access to justice through law enforcement, the courts, and other administrative bodies.
The ability of political parties, civil society organizations, and public protest groups to operate freely and publicly, within the limits of reasonable and unbiased regulation.
Including freedom of the press and individual free speech in both law and in practice.
The effective ability of all adult citizens to register and vote freely, in both law and in practice
The legislature having the authority and capacity to provide oversight of the executive branch, doing so vigorously in practice, and providing a meaningful forum for free political opposition.
Transparency in lawmaking, impartial administration of public functions, and individuals’ full
Timeline of VDIT Scores
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Timeline line graph showing the U.S. threat scores over time.
JUL 2023
Score: 2.1
Significant Threat
DEC 2023
Score: 2.1
Significant Threat
MAR 2024
Score: 2.2
Significant Threat
JUN 2024
Score: 2.5
Significant Threat
What the Score Means
Level
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
Level 5
Description
Within range of a well-functioning democracy
Moderate violations atypical of a well-functioning democracy, but that don’t yet threaten breakdown of this element of democracy
Violations that signal significant erosion of democracy quality in this area and warn of high potential for breakdown in future
Critical violations that seriously threaten this element of democracy’s near-term survival
Violations severe enough to make this aspect of the system non-democratic
Overall…
The effect of political violence on American democracy is atypical of a well-functioning democracy, but not currently indicative of imminent democratic breakdown.
On Elections…
Elections remain the most urgent area of concern, though the current level of concern is lower than it has been throughout VDIT’s history. Still, experts assess that political violence’s impact on elections signals significant erosion and a high potential for the breakdown of election processes in the future.
On Threats and Intimidation…
Experts are more concerned about intimidation than other aspects of political violence — 71% are thinking about intimidation or indirect threats “a lot” or “a great deal” compared to 58% for direct threats and 51% for physical harm.
Baseline levels of social violence are high in the United States, and violent threats and intimidation are not always accompanied by outright aggression. Amidst this complex landscape, where does our democracy stand?
What Protect Democracy is doing to combat political violence
Election officials are unsung heroes who make foundational contributions to the democratic process — from running polling places, to checking voters’ registration, to counting ballots. But election officials across the country are under attack, with one-third reporting that they feel unsafe in their jobs and huge numbers resigning.
The rampant spread of disinformation — false information deliberately spread by bad-faith actors — encourages active hostility and violence against individuals and democratic institutions alike.
Law for Truth, a project of Protect Democracy, uses the tools of strategic litigation and public education to counteract those who intentionally or recklessly spread false information that undermines our democracy.
Every American has the fundamental right to participate peacefully in the democratic process and support the candidates of their choice free from fear, intimidation, or violence.
Protect Democracy uses an integrated advocacy approach to bring accountability to perpetrators of political intimidation and send the message that intimidation is neither without consequences nor acceptable in our democracy.
The sprawling conspiracy to overturn the result of the 2020 presidential election and obstruct the peaceful transition of power was one of the worst culminations of political violence in the history of our democracy.
Accountability for the January 6th Insurrection is paramount to the ongoing health and safety of our democratic processes, and Protect Democracy has been pursuing accountability through public education, the courts and congressional oversight.
