Watching election results come in can be stressful, and it’s only become more difficult to ascertain how to interpret returns because of the ways in which counting the vote has evolved. For most of American history, almost all voters voted in person on election day, which meant that tabulating the ballots was relatively straightforward. 

But after 2000, larger numbers of ballots were not counted until after Election Night, due to the increasing use of mail and provisional ballots. In 2020, this trend intensified as more voters turned to mail-in and absentee ballots to vote safely during the pandemic. Because of partisan differences in the adoption of these alternate forms of voting, later-counted votes have typically disproportionally favored Democrats — the so-called “blue shift.”

Making voting accessible and easy is a net positive for democracy, but it also necessitates understanding how these different forms of voting impact the vote-counting process, and what it all means for the actual results as they come in. 

What is the ‘blue shift?’

The term “blue shift” refers to a phenomenon where the proportion of votes counted for Democratic candidates increases as votes continue to be tabulated. This shift can mean that the apparent margin in a race can change, and sometimes quite drastically, as votes are counted. 

This shift is typically caused by a combination of factors, but begins with voters casting their ballots in different ways. Election Day voters cast their ballots in person, and they are often counted first because those votes are physically delivered to counting centers. Mail ballots are often counted afterward, and some states allow them to be received and counted after Election Day, which can lead to additional delays in tabulating the results of those ballots. Provisional ballots are only counted after the voter’s eligibility is verified post-election.

Those differences in tabulations wouldn’t matter, though, if there weren’t any partisan correlation to specific voting methods. In the past, Democratic voters have been more likely to cast provisional ballots and, in recent years, more likely to vote by mail, while Republican voters are more likely to vote in person. It’s unclear whether this trend will persist, but if it does, it could explain why races tend to shift toward the Democratic candidate as more ballots are counted that were not cast in person.

What is the ‘red mirage?’

The term “red mirage” describes the phenomenon by which Republican candidates may appear to have strong leads on election night, only to see those apparent leads slowly decrease as more Democratic-leaning mail-in ballots are counted. The term “mirage” is especially important here, as it describes the way that initial reporting of results can be misleading. 

It’s important for those responsible for reporting on results to make clear that, because early and in-person votes are counted first, they do not necessarily represent the entirety of the electorate. Instead, these ballots might skew toward one party or the other (in the past it has usually been Republicans), and it’s therefore important to exercise patience before drawing too many conclusions from early results.

The 2020 election offers a perfect example 

In part because of the COVID-19 pandemic, the swings of the “blue shift” and “red mirage” were especially heightened in 2020, making it seem as though President Trump had leads in several key swing states on election night. As more ballots became available, though, it became clear that those early apparent leads were exactly the “red mirage” that some experts had anticipated in advance of the election. 

Even though this phenomenon had been predicted, there were still some who saw the shift in results as evidence of foul play. That’s why communicating the nature of this phenomenon and understanding it is so crucial to ensuring that the results of the election are both trusted and widely accepted. 

Shifts in how election results are tabulated, and whose votes are counted first, are likely to continue in future election cycles. As the number of voting methods expand, the phenomenon of shifts and mirage are going to be a core part of the election-watching process moving forward. Election processes are going to continue to evolve, and ongoing education about these concepts will help voters, analysts, and the media navigate the complexities of modern elections more effectively.